The Importance of Survival, Power Laws, and the Study of Complexity in Investing
First Principles Reasoning Series
Fellow Partners,
The rate of change of the rate of change is accelerating. The world is evolving faster than ever.
In a world that's changing so quickly, the biggest risk you can take is not taking any risk.
Peter Thiel
It is increasingly likely that our species will create more value in the next decade than all the rest of human history combined. If we fail we are still likely to be close. That is astounding.
Our efforts within the partnership have been focused on some simple but difficult questions that are downstream from this reality:
Has the value of human attention increased? (If so, it is not priced in.)
Where are the largest sustainable improvements in economy of time?
As AI’s impact grows, where can we invest in things that don’t change?
Where are we using the wrong denominators to measure progress? What are better ones?
Talking Billions
My friend Bogumil Baranowski recently hosted me on his show to discuss these and other topics.
I think you will enjoy the conversation.
Here are the relevant links:
Spotify | Apple | Amazon | Overcast | YouTube | Substack
As always, thank you for the continued opportunity to compound trust with you.
Please reach out any time.
All the best,
John
Founder and Managing Partner