Seek simplicity on the far side of complexity
First Principles Reasoning Series
Fellow Partners,
This short essay highlights a piece of wisdom hiding in plain sight. It is an enormous advantage that few grab.
Simplicity and simple mindedness (listening)
A theory that you can't explain to a bartender is probably no damn good.
Ernest Rutherford
I recently finished listening to a podcast on an esoteric topic. Again. This was the fourth listen. It is an important topic, so I was trying to get to simplicity on the far side of complexity.
I’ll explain.
During the first listen I was on a walk. I was interested in the subject matter, but as is often the case I had several “wow” moments where the interviewee connected high-value items in a clear manner that helped me glimpse how the world works just a bit more.
At this stage of understanding I knew enough to think that I understood the topic. Laziness tempts one to stop at this point. Ego tempts one to boast in their new-found knowledge.
My goal was understanding, so upon returning from my walk I sat down to write out what I had learned.
The words didn’t flow.
So, I listed to the podcast again.
Struggling with complexity (explaining)
Any intelligent fool can make things bigger and more complex. It takes a touch of genius — and a lot of courage — to move in the opposite direction.
Albert Einstein
During the second listen I was at my desk taking notes. I tried to outline the structure of the topic and connect it to its broader social and economic context. I was primarily trying to understand the incentive structures within the ideas, and how these will naturally elicit action. I wrote a lot.
I often test my understanding of a topic by trying to explain it to someone else. By the end of the second listen and note taking I thought I was ready. That evening over a glass of wine I explained the topic to my wife.
Once again, the words didn’t flow (though she was gracious about it).
So, the next day I listened to the podcast again.
Crossing the complexity chasm (ordering)
If you can’t explain it to a six-year-old, you don’t understand it yourself.
Richard Feynman
This is not to suggest that anything can be made simple, but rather to insist that the right level of explanation should be widely understandable. Here’s how I try to structure such explanations:
The key takeaway is the part that should be explainable to a six-year-old. Those interested or immersed in the details will want to delve further down the tree — which is the appropriate place for underlying complexities and subtleties.
Seeking to put more structure around a topic is a forcing function to separate the important from the minutiae, and the logically consistent from the erroneous.
Having done this, I realized there were substantial gaps in my understanding of certain aspects of the topic.
So, the next day I listened to the podcast again.
Sidebar: it is critical to note that a structure such as the tree above is useful for ordering and understanding specific arguments or subjects, but perilous for trying to understand connections across arguments or subjects. It is far too rigid. Information is connected in complex and often non-intuitive ways that require open, flexible structures to explore, such Chris Harrison’s cluster ball graph of Wikipedia entries on mathematics, shown here:
Simplicity on the far side of complexity (continuing)
The most powerful force that could be potentially harnessed is dogged incremental constant progress over a very long time frame. This is above genius. It’s absolutely above genius because you can understand it.
Peter Kaufman
At this point getting to understanding becomes a matter of humility and stubbornness. Complementary explanations can be helpful. Getting real world experience with the topic can be useful. But the toolkit — pursuing simplicity on the far side of complexity, forcing logical sorting and structure, and testing on an audience — doesn’t change much.
I am still working on the explanation.
(You will hear it eventually.)
Closing thoughts
Why the obsession? Each of us will likely only have a handful of really outstanding insights and associated investment opportunities in our lifetimes. Wisdom dictates making the most of them, and the price of admission is — as Nick Sleep would suggest — understanding the deep reality of businesses and their broader contexts.
The rewards for arriving at simplicity on the far side of complexity are immense — and compound — yet most people stop somewhere along the journey between knowledge and understanding. Those that nurture the habit of getting to simplicity on the far side of complexity over time will find themselves with substantial advantages.
All the best,
John
Founder and Managing Partner